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Emissions from the New England power grid have fallen significantly in the last several years and that’s obviously...
On January 17, 2018, ISO New England (“ISO”) released a draft of its Operational Fuel Security Analysis. This study lays out many different possibilities for a 2024/25 winter, assessing the electric grid’s reliability under a varying array of assumptions. ISO’s main finding is clear: adding more renewables and more imports, and increasing the availability of LNG deliveries and backup oil during supply emergencies, will all contribute to improved system reliability.
While ISO has framed the findings pessimistically, claiming that their analysis shows that insufficient fuel for gas-fired power plants is a threat to reliability in a Reference case, ISO’s modeling is based on some flawed assumptions. Despite its own assertions that higher levels of imports and renewables can minimize system stress and maintain reliability, its Reference Case unrealistically underestimates the likely future impacts of those resources, undermining their contribution to system reliability. ISO also overestimates future electric and gas needs, assuming unrealistic demands on our energy systems.
We find:
For more on our examination of the ISO's draft Operational Fuel Security Analysis, see our factsheet.
Figure 1. Expected 2024 capacity for wind, solar, and other renewables
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